IPCC Assessment Report 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change

Bijetri Roy, Managing Director & Chief Strategy Officer, InsPIRE

On 4th April, 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published their IPCC Assessment Report 2022 on Mitigation of Climate Change by Working Group III (WG-III).

The Working Group III report provides an updated global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges, and examines the sources of global emissions. It explains developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals.

Let’s look at the key highlights of this report:

2010-2019: Average annual GHG emissions at highest levels in human history

As per the report, GHG emissions were 54% higher in 2019 than in 1990, however, the growth is slowing down. Global net anthropogenic GHG levels are at 59 GtCO₂e. Average annual rate of growth has slowed to 1.3% per year in 2010-19 as compared to 2.1% per year during 2000-09.

At least 18 countries have reduced their GHG emissions for more than a period of 10 years through various measures like energy efficiency, decarbonization and reduced demands for energy.

Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are insufficient

Current pledges to the Paris Agreement are insufficient and emissions must fall 43% by 2030 compared to 2019. Unless there are immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, 1.5°C is beyond reach.

Increased evidence of climate action

There is an increased evidence of climate action. LDCs have emitted only 3.3% of global emissions in 2019, but carbon inequality still prevails with the average per capita emissions in 2019 being 1.7 tCO₂e, as compared to the global average of 6.9 tCO₂e.

In some cases, costs for renewables have fallen below those of fossil fuels

Electricity systems in some countries and regions are already predominantly powered by renewables

Limiting warming to 1.5 °C

Global GHG emissions peak before 2025, reduced by 43% by 2030. Methane reduced by 34% by 2030. (based on IPCC-assessed scenarios)

Limiting warming to around 2°C

Global GHG emissions peak before 2025, reduced by 27% by 2030. (based on IPCC-assessed scenarios)

The temperature will stabilize when we reach net zero emissions

There are options available now in every sector that can at least halve emissions by 2030

Energy

⎻ Major transitions are required to limit global warming
⎻ Reduction in fossil fuel use and use of carbon capture and storage
⎻ Low- or no-carbon energy systems
⎻ Widespread electrification and improved energy efficiency
⎻ Alternative fuels: e.g. hydrogen and sustainable biofuels

Demand and services

⎻ Potential to bring down global emissions by 40-70% by 2050
⎻ Walking and cycling, electrified transport, reducing air travel, and adapting houses make large contributions
⎻ Lifestyle changes require systemic changes across all of society
⎻ Some people require additional housing, energy and resources for human wellbeing

Transport

⎻ Reducing demand and low-carbon technologies are key to reducing emissions
⎻ Electric vehicles: greatest potential
⎻ Battery technology: advances could assist electric rail, trucks
⎻ Aviation and shipping: alternative fuels (low-emission hydrogen and biofuels) needed
⎻ Overall, substantial potential but depends on decarbonizing the power sector

Carbon Dioxide Removal

⎻ Required to counterbalance hard-to-eliminate emissions
⎻ Through biological methods: reforestation, and soil carbon sequestration
⎻ New technologies require more research, up-front investment, and proof of concept at larger scales
⎻ Essential to achieve net zero
⎻ Agreed methods for measuring, reporting and verification required

Policies, regulatory and economic instruments

⎻ Regulatory and economic instruments have already proven effective in reducing emissions
⎻ Policy packages and economy-wide packages are able to achieve systemic change
⎻ Ambitious and effective mitigation requires coordination across government and society

Technology and Innovation

⎻ Investment and policies push forward low emissions technological innovation
⎻ Effective decision making requires assessing potential benefits, barriers and risks
⎻ Some options are technically viable, rapidly becoming cost-effective, and have relatively high public support. Other options face barriers
⎻ Adoption of low-emission technologies is slower in most developing countries, particularly the least developed ones

The evidence is clear: The time for action is now